Polls

Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly

2018: Sinema (D) +2.3 | 2016: McCain (R) +12.9

Candidates

Mark Kelly (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Martha McSally (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Arizona Snapshot

RCP Average: Kelly +5.7
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
Key 2020 Races: President | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2018: Governor | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-8 | AZ-9
2016: President | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2
2014: Governor | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2012: President | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2010: Gov | Sen | AZ-1 | AZ-3 | AZ-5 | AZ-7 | AZ-8
2008: President | AZ-1 | AZ-3
2006: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Kelly (D)	McSally (R)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	--	51.2	48.8	Kelly +2.4
RCP Average	10/26 - 11/1	--	--	50.5	44.8	Kelly +5.7
NBC News/Marist NBC/Marist	10/29 - 11/1	717 LV	4.5	52	46	Kelly +6
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	10/29 - 11/1	409 LV	--	51	47	Kelly +4
Emerson Emerson	10/29 - 10/31	732 LV	3.6	49	46	Kelly +3
Reuters/Ipsos Reuters	10/27 - 11/1	610 LV	5.0	53	44	Kelly +9
NY Times/Siena NYT/Siena	10/26 - 10/30	1252 LV	3.0	50	43	Kelly +7
Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen	10/27 - 10/29	800 LV	3.5	48	43	Kelly +5

All Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly Polling Data

RCP Poll Average

Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly

50.5

Kelly (D)+5.7

44.8

McSally (R)

From:

to:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Kelly (D)	McSally (R)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	--	51.2	48.8	Kelly +2.4
RCP Average	10/26 - 11/1	--	--	50.5	44.8	Kelly +5.7
NBC News/Marist NBC/Marist	10/29 - 11/1	717 LV	4.5	52	46	Kelly +6
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	10/29 - 11/1	409 LV	--	51	47	Kelly +4
Emerson Emerson	10/29 - 10/31	732 LV	3.6	49	46	Kelly +3
Reuters/Ipsos Reuters	10/27 - 11/1	610 LV	5.0	53	44	Kelly +9
NY Times/Siena NYT/Siena	10/26 - 10/30	1252 LV	3.0	50	43	Kelly +7
Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen	10/27 - 10/29	800 LV	3.5	48	43	Kelly +5
CNN CNN	10/23 - 10/30	865 LV	4.1	52	45	Kelly +7
Reuters/Ipsos Reuters	10/21 - 10/27	714 LV	4.2	51	44	Kelly +7
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	10/22 - 10/25	716 LV	3.7	50	45	Kelly +5
Susquehanna Susquehanna	10/19 - 10/22	500 LV	4.3	47	50	McSally +3
Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen	10/18 - 10/19	800 LV	3.5	46	44	Kelly +2
Reuters/Ipsos Reuters	10/14 - 10/21	685 LV	4.0	51	44	Kelly +7
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	10/16 - 10/19	LV	--	54	43	Kelly +11
CBS News/YouGov CBS News	10/13 - 10/16	1074 LV	4.1	52	41	Kelly +11
Reuters/Ipsos Reuters	10/7 - 10/14	667 LV	4.0	52	41	Kelly +11
MonmouthMonmouth	10/9 - 10/13	502 LV	4.4	52	42	Kelly +10
Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar	10/6 - 10/9	1045 LV	3.0	47	45	Kelly +2
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	10/4 - 10/8	608 LV	4.0	50	45	Kelly +5
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	10/2 - 10/4	296 LV	--	51	43	Kelly +8
Reuters/Ipsos Reuters	9/29 - 10/7	633 LV	4.3	51	41	Kelly +10
NY Times/SienaNYT/Siena	10/1 - 10/3	655 LV	4.2	50	39	Kelly +11
USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today	9/26 - 9/30	500 LV	4.4	49	40	Kelly +9
Susquehanna Susquehanna	9/25 - 9/28	500 LV	4.3	48	44	Kelly +4
ABC News/Wash Post ABC/WP	9/15 - 9/20	579 LV	4.5	49	48	Kelly +1
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	9/18 - 9/20	262 LV	--	51	43	Kelly +8
NY Times/Siena NYT/Siena	9/11 - 9/16	653 LV	4.1	50	42	Kelly +8
Monmouth Monmouth	9/11 - 9/15	420 LV	4.8	50	46	Kelly +4
Gravis Gravis	9/10 - 9/11	684 LV	3.8	48	43	Kelly +5
CBS News/YouGov CBS News	9/9 - 9/11	1106 LV	--	49	42	Kelly +7
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	9/8 - 9/10	600 LV	4.0	52	42	Kelly +10
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	9/4 - 9/6	470 LV	--	51	45	Kelly +6
FOX News FOX News	8/29 - 9/1	772 LV	3.5	56	39	Kelly +17
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	8/7 - 8/9	428 LV	--	49	43	Kelly +6
Emerson Emerson	8/8 - 8/10	661 LV	3.8	52	41	Kelly +11
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	8/3 - 8/4	603 LV	4.0	48	43	Kelly +5
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	7/24 - 7/26	365 LV	--	47	45	Kelly +2
CNN CNN	7/18 - 7/24	873 RV	3.8	50	43	Kelly +7
NBC News/Marist NBC/Marist	7/14 - 7/22	826 RV	4.1	53	41	Kelly +12
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	7/10 - 7/12	345 LV	--	52	45	Kelly +7
CBS News/YouGov CBS News	7/7 - 7/10	1099 RV	3.8	46	42	Kelly +4
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	7/6 - 7/7	600 LV	4.0	52	43	Kelly +9
CNBC/Change Research (D)CNBC	6/26 - 6/28	311 LV	--	53	44	Kelly +9
Gravis Gravis	6/27 - 6/27	527 LV	4.3	42	46	McSally +4
NY Times/Siena NYT/Siena	6/8 - 6/16	650 RV	4.3	47	38	Kelly +9
FOX News FOX News	5/30 - 6/2	1002 RV	3.0	50	37	Kelly +13
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	5/9 - 5/11	600 LV	4.0	51	38	Kelly +13
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	4/7 - 4/8	600 LV	4.0	51	42	Kelly +9
Monmouth Monmouth	3/11 - 3/14	847 RV	3.4	50	44	Kelly +6
Univision/ASU Univision	3/6 - 3/11	1036 RV	3.0	48	36	Kelly +12
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	3/3 - 3/4	600 LV	4.0	49	42	Kelly +7
PPP (D)PPP (D)	3/2 - 3/3	666 RV	3.8	47	42	Kelly +5
PPP (D)PPP (D)	1/2 - 1/4	760 RV	3.6	46	42	Kelly +4
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	12/3 - 12/4	628 LV	3.9	47	44	Kelly +3
Emerson Emerson	10/25 - 10/28	904 RV	3.2	46	45	Kelly +1
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	8/13 - 8/14	600 LV	4.0	46	41	Kelly +5
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	5/1 - 5/2	600 LV	4.0	44	45	McSally +1
OH Predictive Insights Predictive Insights	2/12 - 2/13	600 LV	4.0	44	46	McSally +2